Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 12576 | 55879 | 460 | 114 | 364 |
| Aug 28 | 12617 | 55941 | 462 | 114 | 371 |
| Aug 29 | 12654 | 56037 | 462 | 114 | 374 |
| Aug 30 | 12654 | 56071 | 462 | 114 | 343 |
| Aug 31 | 12698 | 56136 | 464 | 115 | 354 |
| Sep 01 | 12752 | 56221 | 465 | 115 | 371 |
| Sep 02 | 12820 | 56337 | 466 | 115 | 439 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 5.0 | 9.6% | 42 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 5.1 | 10.9% | 48 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 6.6 | 16.9% | 74 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 8.7 | 21.2% | 93 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.1 | 11.4% | 50 | 0.48% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.1 | 13.2% | 58 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3.9 | 9.8% | 43 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.4 | 7.1% | 31 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 68 | 42.0 | 100% | 439 | 0.42% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 8133 | 32724 | 337 | 98 | 225 |
| Aug 28 | 8193 | 32773 | 338 | 98 | 264 |
| Aug 29 | 8193 | 32817 | 338 | 98 | 246 |
| Aug 30 | 8203 | 32847 | 338 | 98 | 229 |
| Aug 31 | 8243 | 32880 | 342 | 98 | 244 |
| Sep 01 | 8280 | 32940 | 345 | 100 | 256 |
| Sep 02 | 8328 | 33016 | 346 | 100 | 284 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 3.7 | 12.7% | 36 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.4 | 17.3% | 49 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.0 | 12% | 34 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 5.6 | 17.6% | 50 | 0.59% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.6 | 12% | 34 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3.4 | 10.9% | 31 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 2.7 | 8.8% | 25 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 8.8% | 25 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 48 | 30.1 | 100% | 284 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 6201 | 21931 | 306 | 85 | 150 |
| Aug 28 | 6213 | 21963 | 307 | 85 | 139 |
| Aug 29 | 6227 | 21981 | 308 | 85 | 147 |
| Aug 30 | 6238 | 21992 | 311 | 85 | 144 |
| Aug 31 | 6251 | 22004 | 315 | 85 | 149 |
| Sep 01 | 6271 | 22048 | 316 | 85 | 155 |
| Sep 02 | 6297 | 22074 | 316 | 85 | 167 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.1 | 7.2% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.6 | 9.6% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.0 | 6% | 10 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.0 | 17.4% | 29 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 2.7 | 16.2% | 27 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 16.2% | 27 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 2.9 | 16.2% | 27 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.0 | 11.4% | 19 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 26 | 16.7 | 100% | 167 | 0.37% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 13619 | 63551 | 511 | 92 | 442 |
| Aug 28 | 13651 | 63651 | 514 | 93 | 449 |
| Aug 29 | 13660 | 63742 | 515 | 93 | 423 |
| Aug 30 | 13704 | 63821 | 515 | 93 | 430 |
| Aug 31 | 13727 | 63913 | 518 | 93 | 416 |
| Sep 01 | 13798 | 64067 | 519 | 93 | 459 |
| Sep 02 | 13832 | 64203 | 520 | 93 | 476 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.1 | 8.6% | 41 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 6.7 | 15.3% | 73 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 9.1 | 21% | 100 | 0.47% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 6.4 | 17.6% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.0 | 13.9% | 66 | 0.49% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.1 | 10.3% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.4 | 5% | 24 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.1 | 8.2% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 34 | 40.1 | 100% | 476 | 0.4% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 48657 | 382023 | 1722 | 320 | 1074 |
| Aug 28 | 48819 | 382684 | 1722 | 320 | 1152 |
| Aug 29 | 48853 | 383189 | 1723 | 320 | 1065 |
| Aug 30 | 48927 | 383474 | 1727 | 320 | 1026 |
| Aug 31 | 49031 | 383934 | 1731 | 321 | 1012 |
| Sep 01 | 49121 | 384804 | 1733 | 322 | 1054 |
| Sep 02 | 49299 | 385481 | 1736 | 322 | 1157 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 26 | 13.4 | 13% | 150 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 14.4 | 12.4% | 143 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 27 | 23.0 | 18.8% | 217 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 35 | 23.0 | 19.4% | 225 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 17.7 | 14.6% | 169 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 12.4 | 9.7% | 112 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 8.4 | 6.8% | 79 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 12 | 6.4 | 5.4% | 62 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 178 | 118.9 | 100% | 1157 | 0.21% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 655667 | 3140267 | 35448 | 7577 | 15419 |
| Aug 28 | 657604 | 3145049 | 35496 | 7584 | 16051 |
| Aug 29 | 658427 | 3148912 | 35536 | 7584 | 15457 |
| Aug 30 | 659323 | 3151927 | 35591 | 7584 | 14769 |
| Aug 31 | 661239 | 3155277 | 35735 | 7599 | 15262 |
| Sep 01 | 663132 | 3161730 | 35847 | 7627 | 16421 |
| Sep 02 | 665473 | 3167364 | 35953 | 7638 | 17984 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 270 | 186.6 | 10.1% | 1825 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 329 | 239.9 | 13.2% | 2367 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 412 | 286.4 | 16.5% | 2967 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 374 | 294.4 | 17% | 3065 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 295 | 226.9 | 13.3% | 2389 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 287 | 205.1 | 12.5% | 2242 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 213 | 156.0 | 9.2% | 1653 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 161 | 134.7 | 8.2% | 1476 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 2341 | 1730.0 | 100% | 17984 | 0.31% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.6 | 41.9 | 44.9 | 42 | 27.1 | 34.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58.9 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 40% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 16.7 | 11.4 | 40.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.3 | 58 | 58.7 | 40.1 | 28.7 | 26.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.6 | 25.3 | 27.9 | 118.9 | 94 | 17.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.6 | 39.5 | 49.7 | 1730 | 1250.4 | 27.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7090"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges